Beyond the Big Markets: What Jordan and Turkey's Rice Import Surge Means for Exporters

Between November 2025 and March 2026, India shipped 4.79 million tonnes of rice worth ₹23,476 crore to 26 priority markets — about 5.6% above the three-year average, according to data reviewed ahead of the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026, which the Indian Rice Exporters’ Federation (IREF) will host at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi, from October 23–25, 2026. Inside that aggregate number are two figures worth more attention than the headline: rice shipments to Jordan have risen nearly eight-fold, and basmati exports to Turkey have doubled.

Why Jordan and Turkey, and why now

Neither country was a traditional top-tier destination for Indian rice. Jordan’s surge is partly a function of shifting regional trade routes following disruption to Iran-linked trade, redirecting demand through alternative corridors. Turkey’s doubled basmati intake reflects a market that was previously underpenetrated relative to its consumption potential. In both cases, growth did not come from underselling established suppliers into Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Iran — it came from a market that had simply been under-served becoming reachable, and in some cases more economical to serve.

“The traditional approach has been to look at the largest import markets and assume that those are automatically the best opportunities,” said Dev Garg, Vice-President of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation, in remarks ahead of BIRC 2026. The Jordan and Turkey numbers are a direct challenge to that assumption.

The bigger shift: where rice demand is actually going

The opportunity extends well past these two markets. Global rice trade is projected to grow by roughly 22 million tonnes to reach 81 million tonnes by 2035, and Africa’s share of global rice imports is expected to rise from 35% to 45% over the same period — a shift trade analysts describe as worth several billion dollars in additional trade value. India already exports rice to more than 170 countries; the question BIRC 2026 is expected to formalize is which of those relationships are under-invested relative to their real growth trajectory.

What this means for exporters and importers, not just India's largest mills

For a merchant exporter or importer deciding where to focus in 2027, the Jordan/Turkey pattern points to a method rather than a specific country: evaluate demand growth, import dependence, competitive intensity, and regulatory conditions market by market, instead of defaulting to whichever destination already has the largest import volume. A market growing from a small base can be a better opportunity than a saturated large one, particularly where trade-route economics or regulatory openings are shifting in your favor.

It's a principle we've leaned on while growing our own basmati and non-basmati rice trade beyond a Gulf-heavy buyer base: the largest market is rarely the only market worth serious attention, and building buyer relationships before a market becomes obviously competitive is usually where the real margin sits.

Business takeaway

If you manufacture, merchant-export, or import rice — or any agri-commodity where global demand is diversifying beyond a handful of traditional buyers — the practical action is to audit your own buyer-country mix against actual demand-growth data, not against habit. BIRC 2026 (Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi, October 23–25) will bring exporters, millers, and international buyers together specifically to make those introductions. Whether or not you attend, the underlying data is worth building into how you prioritize outreach for the year ahead.