Container Freight Rates Have Surged Since February: A Cost Check for Agri Exporters and Importers

If your landed-cost sheet has looked tighter than usual the last few months, it isn't just your imagination. According to a Jefferies research report cited by Maritime Gateway on 21 October 2026, global container freight rates have risen by roughly 130% since February 2026, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East that are disrupting shipping routes and global cargo movement. The report puts rates at roughly USD 2,000–2,500 per container in February 2026, climbing to an estimated USD 4,000–4,500 per container by October 2026. Asia–Europe and Middle East trade lanes are named as the most exposed to the higher costs.

The twist: India's export volumes are still climbing

What makes this worth a second look is that the rate surge hasn't (yet) dented trade volumes out of India. The same report shows India's containerised trade up 23% year-on-year in September 2026 — exports up 22% and imports up 23%. Exports to the United States jumped 48% in the same period, even as exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia fell 12–15%. Major Indian ports saw cargo volumes rise 13%, while non-major ports were roughly flat on average, with Gujarat up 3% and Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu up 6–7%; the report flags a sharp fall in volumes at east coast ports specifically. In other words, buyers are still placing orders and cargo is still moving — the pain is showing up in margins, not in order books, at least for now. Jefferies also flags a possible return of container lines to the Suez Canal as a factor to watch, since a shift back to that route could ease rates if it materialises.

Business takeaway: for exporters of lower value-to-weight agri-commodities — bulk cereals, grains and pulses — a freight increase of this size can quietly erase the margin on a shipment that looked profitable when the quote was issued weeks earlier. This is exactly the gap between a contract price and the true landed cost that catches out exporters who quote FOB or CIF without a freight-escalation clause, or who lock in pricing for future shipment months ahead. Two practical responses are worth considering right now: first, review how exposed your current open contracts for commodities like rice and other bulk grains are to a freight line that has roughly doubled since February; second, look at whether your packaging choice is adding avoidable weight or volume to the container — for instance, reviewing whether export packaging such as PP woven bags is optimised for container utilisation can make a measurable difference when freight is the line item moving fastest on your cost sheet. Spice and other high value-to-weight shipments feel this less acutely, but no exporter is fully insulated while Middle East-linked disruption continues. Build a freight-revision clause into new quotations, and revisit old ones before shipment, not after the invoice is raised.